Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Take Advantage

One week into the expansion and demand is soaring. Are you seeing peak demand due to all the players leveling and gearing to raid? It is time to take advantage of that while leveling your professions at the same time. Don't hold on to anything that is from cataclysm. Cut, Craft and SELL because this is the biggest demand peak you will see in the next two years.

If you can farm your own mats you will make the highest profit margin you may see until the next expansion. I suggest leveling a farming toon first if you have one and then crafting and posting as you progress through the areas. My personal example is mining and jewel crafting. Just clearing the Hyjal area on my miner I was able to make close to 7,000g with jewelcrafting the ore he mined as he quested. Now at level 82 and in Deepholm he has made close to another 7,000g and this is within 5 hours of play time.

Next week will be the beginning of the decline on the demand for goods. I expect by December 21st to begin seeing enchanting and gem prices normalize based on their drop rates. The next market to show a demand peak will probably be raid mats once people gear to 85. After raids pick up look at stocking some items for the new pvp season.

There is a fortune to be made so now is the time to get to work and stop reading! (oh wait it's a patch day :P )

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cataclysm Stock Pile

With new content within months of release it's time to start talking about liquidating the bubble goods in your bank and stocking up on the long term items which will gain in value post release.

First up is the bubble goods, typically everything that is top line end game consumable or a item with little to know collecting potential.

DO NOT WANT
Most of these goods listed above are not used past 425 when skilling up a profession or a less expensive item can be found in substitution (in other words you can get to your cataclysm level training without anything listed above). epic gems and item enhancements will be replaced in cataclysm with new end tier enhancements.

Next up we have the keep list. If you already have these goods in your inventory I would try to hold off using them before cataclysm as their value will rise 3-5 months after the release of the expansion. If you do not have these goods, try skimming them out of the auction house on a low bid increasing your margins even more as we wait for cataclysm to be released.

KEEP
This list might go further but the idea behind it is keep anything that is required to level a profession and keep them in the most beneficial format (hold stacks of greater cosmic essences instead of stacks of lesser)

Here is my additional tip to the big time stock pile: use the 30 day mail between alts to hold this inventory until the demand is peaking which I predict to be after the first progression raid is on farm for your server.

Why wait so long?

Well after a guild gets something on farm, the alts and power leveling of professions is what many turn to in downtime while waiting for blizzard to release something new to conquer. The first raid that gets farmed generally is when most returning players are active. Therefore more buyers.

One last little thing to watch for is people dumping items that may be more valuable to process. And example would be someone putting 100 raw monarch topaz on the Auction House for less than 4.5g If you have a jewelcrafter than you can easily cut and vendor them at a profit. I anticipate this happening for several items so keep your snatch list up to date!

    Wednesday, September 15, 2010

    Guild Research is Gold(en)

    You can prevent the loss of sales and gain additional revenue and supplies by researching guilds on your realm and talking with their officers. This article will use mostly pve guilds as an example but many of the principles can be applied across the board.

    Know who is buying what, when they are buying it, and what they are buying it for. If a major guild has a set raiding schedule know their schedule, know the guilds policies and how they acquire the consumables needed for their raids. If they craft their own feasts then find out where they get their base mats from, if they buy their feasts work out a deal to meet them 1 day before their raid or on a similar basis and be their provider. Do they make flasks or buy them, are the members left on their own to come with supplies? Make sure you stock your auctions based on the guilds needs or deal with them directly.

    If you know that they don't need a specific item when they raid then hold out on putting it up for sale until a guild that does use the item. Let's look at some flasks for an example. Lets say Guild A raids Tuesday, Wednesday and Sunday and Guild B raids Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Now you could have a routine of placing 20 flasks in per night at Xg. But with some research you find out that guild A crafts their own flasks with mats from the AH and build B buys flasks directly. Lets also say you are slightly overstocked on icethorn. With your guild research you know that guild A will probably buy your icethorn on Tuesday or buy out any competition and you can get a higher amount for your overstock. Then you can also put maybe 10 flasks in on Tuesday instead of your usual 20 and then move the extra 10 to place auctions in quantities of 30 on Wednesday and Thursday for 48 hours.

    these adjustments on a larger scale will create a large increase in your profits over time. especially if the price is fluctuating based on demand. This research gives you a better roi for your flasks and a smarter outlet for excess herbs taking up space in your bank.

    The idea of learning more about guild schedules is pretty easy. Another important item to watch guilds for is their progression level. If they get 50-75% of a raid on farm chances are they are disenchanting a lot of items on a weekly bases. most guilds let these shards pile up or they auction them and have to manage the auction house in addition to their guilds. You can be a great service and setup a relationship with their bank officer, make them an offer to purchase their excess shards or items at 30% less then the current AH rate. Every time the guild is done on a Monday you meet the bank officer and purchase their stock, extras whatever they have for you. Flip it for 25% (30% - AH fee of 5%) or use it for your crafting.

    Keep an eye out for drama, breakups, and server transfers. Characters max at the 10,000g for a transfer so they will probably try to cap as many trustworthy members as possible. Dumping large amounts of raiding mats and items onto the AH at a low buyout to get the gold. Players leaving with large stocks of raiding mats also will usually liquidate their stocks.

    Reading on the forums, paying attention to what guilds are popular and which are not in chat will be a very useful tool to tweak your sales and make relationships that lead to new streams of cash.

    Friday, September 3, 2010

    Understanding your Server: Trends of Demand

    A lot of people getting into to the Auction house or people who are hesitant to do so usually have had an experience of not fully understanding their server or at least the current trend of demand. Taking the time to figure out what is going on around you on your realm can make a big difference in your item sales.

    Trend of demand is something that every realm of wow is affected by. PVP, RP, PVE servers all have different and similar demand trends and understanding these is a key component of understanding the auction house mechanics and the natural cycle of materials through your realms virtual economy.

    Picture the circle of life that you might have heard of from grade school or from Elton John. Now apply this idea to wow and overlap it with many other circles. Trend of demand affects one ore many circle(s) of goods. There are a few things that have major affects on trends that you should already know about.

    Patches and Expansions being the first. Whenever new content is on it's way people unload their mats and goods to "not be that guy stuck with everything" when it gets undervalued. Much like the housing bubble of 2008-2009. You want to sell and unload your goods before it pops. Every content cycle in WoW is a similar bubble especially in the consumable pve market (flasks, cut gems, item enhancements ect). PvP seasons can also fall into this category, however keep in mind that many markets will become more popular at the start of a new PvP season and you should be prepared for material prices to increase in addition to competition.

    Aged content that has been cleared and is on farm (at least normal modes) is another major game change for many Circles. When guilds are spending hours wiping on a boss potions and food items are much more valuable. If you pay attention to the longterm trend of fish feasts during periods of progressive PVE in WOTLK you will see when your server aged through it's content. The easier it is cleared the less demand for fish and pots.

    Guilds with large or dedicated membership will also shift goods around your realms economy. If a large guild is rumored to be breaking up or transferring then you can expect a material dump as people leave. Smaller realms will be affected by this much more than a large realm with a stable economy. The key is to pay attention to what is going on in the social portion of your server because that is going to have an effect on the auction house as much as small patch which changes a raw material mechanic such as the purchasable frost lotus. Guild research is so important that I will probably be doing another post shortly on how beneficial it is.

    These few examples should be obvious to many but they should also get you thinking about other things that could be affecting your realms economy. Please feel free to share your thoughts and realm trends in the comments.